The mechanics of Koirala's health (Nepalnews Feature)
Written by Anand Gurung
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For Koirala, deteriorating health could mean political wealth. But what if he bows out from active politics for good?
By Anand Gurung
Girija Prasad KoiralaGirija Prasad Koirala, the Grand Old Man of Nepali politics is sick again. Not sick as in sick of steering the Nepali politics as per his vision (or the lack of it), like he has always been doing. But sick as in suffering from poor health condition, like many other 86-year-old's are prone to.As of writing this piece, the Nepali Congress President and six-time Prime Minister is being attended by half a dozen doctors at the deluxe cabin of Shahid Ganga Lal Heart Center in Kathmandu after his health condition further deteriorated early Tuesday morning. The ailing octogenarian leader, who suffers from Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease or Bronchitis since long, has low oxygen content in the blood and needs further rest, his doctors say.On Wednesday morning, doctors attending to Koirala said that his condition is improving and that he ate some solid food in the morning.
It couldn't have come at a more inopportune time. But again, things like a person's luck or health takes no time to improve or, in Koirala's case, deteriorate. And it doesn't come by asking. Koirala is undisputedly one of the most influential person in Nepali politics today. He is not only like a patriarch figure of the oldest and now second-biggest Nepali Congress party which has governed Nepal on numerous occasions in the past under his leadership, but also wields enormous leverage with top leaders of other parties as well due to his bipartisan credentials. He almost holds a mythic image of a 'king-maker' who can easily make or break a government through his clever political maneuverings. So, if he is not well, then it is indeed a matter of great concern for the country, and more so when it is passing through such a difficult phase. [As if it ever was going through a good phase, says one of my colleague]With normal life all over the country affected due to the nationwide agitation of the Unified CPN (Maoist) entering its tenth day Wednesday, the constitution drafting process precariously off the main political agenda and possibility of increase in confrontation and violence in the country to the detriment of the ongoing peace process, it is no wonder that Koirala's dwindling health comes as one tight slap.Especially under the ear of other top players of the country's politics.Few days before Koirala again developed complications in his lungs, his residence in Maharajgunj had virtually become a power-center with Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and other party honchos regularly visiting him there. And after he was taken ill since Saturday with his personal physicians advising him not to meet visitors, President Dr Ram Baran Yadav reached Maharajgunj to meet Koirala and inquire after the latter's health. It might only be a coincidence, PM Nepal has also been taken ill by viral fever since Sunday evening and is taking rest at his residence in Baluwatar. (A cartoon published in a major daily Tuesday shows a doctor telling PM Nepal that the latter is afflicted with 'Swing flu' and he must hold onto his chair tight for some months).And the importance of Koirala to the current government can also be gauged from the fact that PM Nepal has cancelled his trip to Italy scheduled for Saturday (where he was supposed to attend a summit on food security) in view of his own illness and the NC leader's failing health. Its amazing that the nationwide Maoist protests that is poised to topple his government were not worthwhile reasons for PM Nepal to put off the junket.However, there are some who suspect that the wily old man may even be feigning sickness just to divert the attention from the core issue: his own leadership failures and personality weaknesses.There are good reasons why such suspicion has arisen, as Koirala's deteriorating health condition is in fact starting to work on his favor.Having gambled his long political career, his legacy, even the well-being of his equally grand old party just to secure the plum post of Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister for his daughter Sujata Koirala at the end, Koirala had lost both respect and clout inside his party to a great extent. Critics who used to slam Koirala for running Nepali Congress with iron fist, almost in a semi-dictatorial fashion, were surprised at seeing the voices of discord against him inside the party. The act of nepotism cost Koirala so dearly that for the first time in many years NC central leaders went against his orders and called the Mahasamiti meeting to amend the party statute so as to limit the absolute power of party president and make other major reforms. Plus, few senior and junior leaders had started to even challenge Koirala's authority.But with Koirala suddenly ill, all this issue has again been pushed into the back-burner. This was clear seeing all the top NC honchos, second-rung leaders and large number of party activists gathered at the Shahid Gangalal Heart Center on Tuesday. It was as if they were all ashamed of their latest defiance to Koirala, of what they made him go through.Furthermore, Koirala's health concerns has probably shifted the attention (both of the public and the media) from the nationwide protests of the Maoists, maybe even sucked vitality off it. This is perhaps why the Maoists were on Tuesday suddenly angry at, as what they described, government's apathy towards both fulfilling their demands and utter disregard for the means they have adopted to ensure it. Knowing that Koirala might again steal the show from under their nose and they will be left with nothing but to face public ire and political backlash for their vigor-less nationwide agitation, senior Maoist leaders decided to continue with the obstruction in the legislature-parliament (despite having earlier assured to allow it to resume for the passage of the government's yearly budget) and intensify the party's ongoing protest movement.Who else but the Maoists know about the serious political consequences of ignoring Koirala's fluctuating health condition. In March this year, the Nepali Congress President had visited New Delhi to hold political consultations with top Indian leaders and establishment figures under the excuse of 'routine health check-ups'. (Let's see what suggestions Indian leaders here offer on my health, as one newspaper cartoon had him saying at that time). Some sections of the media, however, reported that Koirala was in fact in New Delhi to plot the down-fall of the Maoist-led government.So it happened. Little over two months later the Maoists were left with no option but to step down from the government.Intending not to sound like a dooms-day aficionado at the least, what if Koirala does become seriously ill now, which any person of his age could, so as to be completely rendered unable to return to active politics? How will it affect the current party politics over which he has so much influence, and most importantly, the ongoing peace process? Some political analysts believe that if Koirala had not envisioned the end of the decade-long bloody insurgency by bringing the Maoists into the mainstream of national politics from the jungles, peace process in the country would never have taken off in the first place and nation would have slipped further into political uncertainty and violence.And perhaps they might be right. If Koirala indeed bows out of Nepali politics owing to his failing health, it could bring lots of complexities in the political situation of the country as well as the fledgling peace process.
